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Incipient axial
collapse of the Main Cordillera and strain partitioning gradient between the central
and Patagonian Andes, Lago Laja, Chile | Daniel
Melnick , François Charlet et al.
Lago Laja is a late Quaternary
volcanic-dammed lake located near the drainage divide of the south central Andes.
Field observations, lake reflection seismic profiles, bathymetry, and remote sensing
data reveal an active fault system that runs parallel to the volcanic arc along
the axis of the Main Cordillera, the Lago Laja fault system (LLFS). Normal faults
of this extensional system cut late Pleistocene volcanics, <7.1 ka still water
lacustrine sediments, 6.3 ka pyroclastic deposits, and Holocene alluvial fans.
We divide the LLFS in three segments on the basis of fault geometry, width, and
slip magnitude. | More | Deformation
and permeability of aggregated soft earth materials | C. G. Eggers, M. Berli
et al
This study develops a framework for modeling deformation
of individual pores in elastoviscoplastic earth material accounting for the effects
of evolving pore size and shape on material hydraulic permeability. We describe
the velocity field of a fluid within deforming pores of hypotrochoidal cross-sectional
areas as a function of remote stress or deformation and elastoviscoplastic material
properties using finite element analysis. We find that pore permeability decreases
with increasing stress and deformation. Pore cross-sectional areas are mainly
reduced in size while the shape remains constant.
More...
| | Predicting
Solar Cycle 24 and beyond | Mark A. Clilverd, Ellen Clarke et al
We use a model for sunspot number using low-frequency solar oscillations, with
periods 22, 53, 88, 106, 213, and 420 years modulating the 11-year Schwabe cycle,
to predict the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 and for future cycles, including
the period around 2100 A.D. We extend the earlier work of Damon and Jirikowic
(1992) by adding a further long-period component of 420 years. Typically, the
standard deviation between the model and the peak sunspot number in each solar
cycle from 1750 to 1970 is ±34. The peak sunspot prediction for cycles
21, 22, and 23 agree with the observed sunspot activity levels within the error
estimate. Our peak sunspot prediction for cycle 24 is significantly smaller than
cycle 23, with peak sunspot numbers predicted to be 42 ± 34. These predictions
suggest that a period of quiet solar activity is expected, lasting until ~2030,
with less disruption to satellite orbits, satellite lifetimes, and power distribution
grids and lower risk of spacecraft failures and radiation dose to astronauts.
Our model also predicts a recovery during the middle of the century to more typical
solar activity cycles with peak sunspot numbers around 120. | More | Evidence
in support of the climate change-Atlantic hurricane hypothesis | James B.
Elsner
The power of Atlantic tropical cyclones is rising rather dramatically
and the increase is correlated with an increase in the late summer/early fall
sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic. A debate concerns the nature
of these increases with some studies attributing them to a natural climate fluctuation,
known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and others suggesting climate
change related to anthropogenic increases in radiative forcing from greenhouse-gases.
Here tests for causality using the global mean near-surface air temperature (GT)
and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) records during the Atlantic hurricane
season are applied. Results show that GT is useful in predicting Atlantic SST,
but not the other way around. Thus GT "causes" SST providing additional
evidence in support of the climate change hypothesis. Results have serious implications
for life and property throughout the Caribbean, Mexico, and portions of the United
States. | More |
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