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Noviembre de 2008
Excess degassing from volcanoes and its role on eruptive and intrusive activity
Author: Hiroshi Shinohara
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Abstract
Volcanoes emit larger amounts of volcanic gas than can be dissolved in the volume of erupted magma during a variety of volcanic processes, including explosive and effusive eruption and noneruptive continuous degassing. Degassing of unerupted magma with a much larger volume than that of erupted magma caused such a large

degassing; erupted magma represents only a small portion of the magma that drives volcanic activity. Evaluation of the magma-gas differentiation process causing the excess degassing is necessary to understand eruption processes, magma chamber evolution, and crustal growth by magma intrusion. Three mechanisms are proposed to explain various degassing modes, including eruption of bubble-accumulated magma, degassing of a convecting magma column, and permeable gas transportation from a deep magma chamber. Examples of large degassing in excess of the erupted magma are common in subduction zone volcanism but are rare in rift- and hot spot-associated volcanism.

Noviembre de 2008
Spatiotemporal correlations of earthquakes in the continuum limit of the one-dimensional Burridge-Knopoff model
Authors: Takahiro Mori and Hikaru Kawamura
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Abstract
Spatiotemporal correlations of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model of earthquakes, either with or without the viscosity term, are studied by means of numerical computer simulations. The continuum limit of the model is examined by systematically investigating the model properties by varying the block-size parameter a toward a ? 0. The Kelvin viscosity term is introduced so that the model dynamics

possesses a sensible continuum limit. In the presence of the viscosity term, many of the properties of the original discrete BK model are kept qualitatively unchanged even in the continuum limit, although the size of minimum earthquakes gets smaller as a gets smaller. One notable exception is the existence/nonexistence of the doughnutlike quiescence prior to the mainshock. Although large events of the original discrete BK model accompany seismic acceleration together with a doughnutlike quiescence just before the mainshock, the spatial range of the doughnutlike quiescence becomes narrower as a gets smaller, and in the continuum limit, the doughnutlike quiescence might vanish altogether. The doughnutlike quiescence observed in the discrete BK model is then a phenomenon closely related to the short-length cutoff scale of the model.

Noviembre de 2008
Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes: Their influences on foreshock probabilities
Authors: Jiancang Zhuang, Annemarie Christophersen et al
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Abstract
In this study we investigate the foreshock probabilities calculated from earthquake catalogs from Japan, southern California, and New Zealand. Unlike conventional studies on foreshocks, we use a probability-based declustering method to separate each catalog into stochastic versions of family trees, such that each event is classified as either having been triggered by a preceding event or being a spontaneous event. The probabilities are determined from parameters that provide the best fit of the real catalogue using a space-time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. The model

assumes that background and triggered earthquakes have the same magnitude-dependent triggering capability. A foreshock here is defined as a spontaneous event that has one or more larger descendants, and a triggered foreshock is a triggered event that has one or more larger descendants. The proportion of foreshocks in spontaneous events of each catalog is found to be lower than the proportion of triggered foreshocks in triggered events. One possibility is that this is due to different triggering productivity in spontaneous versus triggered events, i.e., a triggered event triggers more children than a spontaneous events of the same magnitude. However, further analysis on simulated data shows that such difference might be caused by the events triggered by smaller events below the magnitude threshold of the catalog. Even if the physical interpretation is unclear, a clustering model where spontaneous events and triggered events have different triggering behaviors can be used to assess the risk of foreshocks, and to avoid overpredicting.

Noviembre de 2008
Multiarrival wavefront tracking and its applications
Authors: J. Hauser, M. Sambridge et al
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Abstract
Multivalued traveltimes have traditionally not been used in seismic imaging, with only a handful of notable exceptions in the field of exploration geophysics. For studies at local and regional scales (e.g., local earthquake/teleseismic tomography), the focus has largely been on first arrivals, with numerous ray- and grid-based schemes developed for their calculation. However, later arrivals often contribute to the length and shape of a recorded wave train, particularly in regions of complex geology. These arrivals are likely to contain additional information about seismic structure, as their two point path differs from that of the first arrival; in particular, they are more amenable to sampling regions of lower

velocity. In this work the wavefront construction principle is used as the basis of a new scheme for computing multivalued traveltimes that arise from smooth variations in both velocity structure and interface geometry. The idea is to represent the wavefront as a set of points in reduced phase space and use local ray tracing and interpolation to advance the wavefront in a series of time steps. The scheme is robust in the presence of strong velocity heterogeneity and interface curvature, with phases comprising multiple reflections, refractions, and triplications successfully tracked. Outside the field of exploration seismology wavefront construction techniques are rarely used, yet they hold great potential for addressing problems in other areas of seismology. This paper demonstrates the viability of the new wavefront construction scheme by applying it to a range of scenarios, including multiarrival body and surface wave tomography, teleseismic receiver function prediction using Gaussian beams, and the tracking of global phases such as PcP.

Noviembre de 2008
Laboratory impact experiments and numerical simulations on shock pressure attenuation in water ice
Authors: Kei Shirai, Manabu Kato et al
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Abstract
High-velocity impact experiments of water ice were conducted to measure the shock pressure profile at various distances from the impact point. A numerical simulation of shock wave propagation in water ice was also conducted for comparison with the experimental results. The numerical model was improved to fit the measured profiles, and it was found that a tensile strength of Y c = 1 MPa was necessary to reproduce the shock pressure profiles above the Hugoniot Elastic Limit. This improved numerical model was then used to study the shock pressure attenuation in water ice at various impact conditions and to

refine the crater scaling law. The late-stage effective energy (LE) is the product of initial shock pressure (P 0) and the third power of the projectile size (L p 3). The impact conditions with the same late-stage effective energy can produce the same shock pressure distribution far from the impact point (so-called late-stage equivalence). These impact conditions were investigated by numerical calculations with different projectiles and impact velocities. As a result of our calculation for water ice impacts, we found that a power law index of 2.2 instead of 3, as adopted by previous studies, is suitable for reproducing the late-stage equivalence in water ice (i.e., LE is proportional to P 0 · L p 2.2). By using this improved LE, we can reconcile the inconsistency between the crater size and the LE indicated by previous studies. By using this improved LE, the crater volume V cr formed on water ice is expressed by the following equation, V cr = 1.0 exp (l n/2450), with V cr in cm3, wherein l n (in Pa m2.2) is a constant derived from a fit to the data.

Noviembre de 2008
Electrical characterization of non-Fickian transport in groundwater and hyporheic systems
Authors: Kamini Singha, Adam Pidlisecky et al
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Abstract
Recent work indicates that processes controlling solute mass transfer between mobile and less mobile domains in porous media may be quantified by combining electrical geophysical methods and electrically conductive tracers. Whereas direct geochemical measurements of solute preferentially sample the mobile domain, electrical geophysical methods are sensitive to changes in bulk electrical conductivity (bulk EC) and therefore sample EC in both the mobile and immobile domains. Consequently, the conductivity difference between direct geochemical samples

and remotely sensed electrical geophysical measurements may provide an indication of mass transfer rates and mobile and immobile porosities in situ. Here we present (1) an overview of a theoretical framework for determining parameters controlling mass transfer with electrical resistivity in situ; (2) a review of a case study estimating mass transfer processes in a pilot-scale aquifer storage recovery test; and (3) an example application of this method for estimating mass transfer in watershed settings between streams and the hyporheic corridor. We demonstrate that numerical simulations of electrical resistivity studies of the stream/hyporheic boundary can help constrain volumes and rates of mobile-immobile mass transfer. We conclude with directions for future research applying electrical geophysics to understand field-scale transport in aquifer and fluvial systems subject to rate-limited mass transfer.

Noviembre de 2008
A model of earthquake triggering probabilities and application to dynamic deformations constrained by ground motion observations
Authors: Joan Gomberg and Karen Felzer
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Abstract
We have used observations from Felzer and Brodsky (2006) of the variation of linear aftershock densities (i.e., aftershocks per unit length) with the magnitude of and distance from the main shock fault to derive constraints on how the probability of a main shock triggering a single aftershock at a point, P(r, D), varies as a function of distance, r, and main shock rupture dimension, D. We find that P(r, D) becomes independent of D as the

triggering fault is approached. When r » D P(r, D) scales as D m where m~2 and decays with distance approximately as r -n with n = 2, with a possible change to r -(n-1) at r > h, where h is the closest distance between the fault and the boundaries of the seismogenic zone. These constraints may be used to test hypotheses about the types of deformations and mechanisms that trigger aftershocks. We illustrate this using dynamic deformations (i.e., radiated seismic waves) and a posited proportionality with P(r, D). Deformation characteristics examined include peak displacements, peak accelerations and velocities (proportional to strain rates and strains, respectively), and two measures that account for cumulative deformations. Our model indicates that either peak strains alone or strain rates averaged over the duration of rupture may be responsible for aftershock triggering.

Noviembre de 2008
Generación de terremotos mediante la inyección de agua a ~ 3 Km de profundidad en el campo de gas de Rongchang, Chongqing, China
Autores: Xinglin Lei, Guozheng Yu et al
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Abstract
Inyectamos cerca de 1 millón de m3 de agua no deseada de un modo intermitente mediante bombeo a presión a 2.1-2.9 MPa (hidrostática) a 2.6-2.9 Km de profundidad en el campo de gas de Rongchang, en Chongqing, China, a partir de julio de 1988. La inyección de agua ha producido más de 32.000 registros de sismos superficiales, incluyendo dos de magnitud M L = 5, catorce de magnitud M L = 4, y más de 100 de magnitud M L = 3 contabilizados hasta finales del 2006. Examinamos el modelo de secuencia del tipo epidémica después del sismo (ETAS) y la evolución temporal de la estadística de la secuencia de los sismos. El componente aleatorio del modelo ETAS puede ser considerado como un indicador de la actividad fluída dirigida, mientras que los sismos posteriores al principal del tipo Ley de Omori indica generación de tensiones de los sismos precedentes. Nosotros observamos tres fases de actividad, las cuales coincidían con diferentes periodos de inyección. La fase I corresponde a leves inyecciones iniciales de agua (durante un gran intervalo de tiempo) y muestra la mayor cantidad de eventos del tipo Ley de Omori y sólo 8% de actividad forzada por agentes externos. La fase II corresponde al periodo de grandes inyecciones de agua y muestra una intensa actividad caracterizada por un gran porcentaje (45%) de sismos fluído-dirigidos. La fase III muestra sismicidad decreciente como resultado de una baja tasa de inyección de agua y donde más del 70% de los sismos ocurrieron aleatoriamente en el tiempo, indicando el predominio de agentes externos. El mecanismo físico que induce la secuencia de sismos de Rongchang fue un cambio en las tensiones de la Falla de Coulomb, causada por difusión porosa de la presión y transformada en el deslizamiento previo al sismo. Un incremento de presión de 2.1 a 2.9 MPa en el pozo de inyección es más que suficiente para inducir fallas en las formaciones locales.

Noviembre de 2008
Earthquakes induced by water injection at ~3 km depth within the Rongchang gas field, Chongqing, China
Authors: Xinglin Lei, Guozheng Yu et al
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Abstract
Unwanted water, amounting more than 1 million m3, has been injected intermittently at a pumping pressure of 2.1-2.9 MPa (over hydrostatic) at 2.6-2.9 km depth within the Rongchang gas field, western Chongqing, China, since July 1988. The injections have induced more than 32,000 surface-recorded earthquakes, including 2 of M L = 5, 14 of M L = 4, and more than 100 of M L = 3 up until the end of 2006. We examined the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and the temporal evolution of several statistics of the earthquake sequence. The random component in the ETAS model can be considered as an indicator of fluid-driven activity, while the rate of Omori-law-type aftershocks indicates stress triggering of the preceding earthquakes. We observed three distinct seismic activity phases that were coincident with different injection periods. Phase I corresponds to initial injections with low injection rate (long time interval) and shows a vast majority of Omori-type events and only 8% externally forced activity. Phase II corresponds to a period of high injection rates and shows intense earthquake activity characterized by a high percentage (45%) of fluid-driven earthquakes. Phase III demonstrates decreasing seismicity as a result of a lowering in the injection rate; more than 70% of earthquakes occurred randomly over time, indicating the dominance of external triggering. The physical mechanism that induced the Rongchang earthquake sequence was a change in Coulomb's failure stress caused by pore pressure diffusion and transformed from seismic slip of preceding earthquakes. A pressure increase of 2.1-2.9 MPa at the injection well is more than sufficient to induce failure within the local formations.

Octubre de 2008
An EGF technique to infer the rupture velocity history of a small magnitude earthquake
Authors: S. de Lorenzo, M. Filippucci et al
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Abstract
An empirical Green's function (EGF) technique has been developed to detect the rupture velocity history of a small earthquake. The assumed source model is a circular crack that is characterized by a single and unipolar moment rate function (MRF). The deconvolution is treated as an inverse problem in the time domain, which involves an assumed form of the moment rate function (MRF). The source parameters of the MRF are determined by adopting a global nonlinear inversion scheme. A thorough synthetic study on

both synthetic and real seismograms allowed us to evaluate the degree of reliability of the retrieved model parameters. The technique was applied to four small events that occurred in the Umbria-Marche region (Italy) in 1997. To test the hypothesis of a single rupture process, the inversion results were compared with those arising from another EGF technique, which assumes a multiple rupture process. For each event, the best fit model was selected using the corrected Akaike Information Criterion. For all the considered events the most interesting result is that the selected best fit model favors the hypothesis of a single faulting process with a clear variability of the rupture velocity during the process. For the studied events, the maximum rupture speed can even approach the P-wave velocity at the source, as theoretically foreseen in studies of the physics of the rupture and recently observed for high-magnitude earthquakes.

Octubre de 2008
Complex slab subduction beneath northern Sumatra
Authors:J. D. Pesicek, C. H. Thurber et al
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Abstract
New data provided by the 2004-2005 Sumatra-Andaman great earthquake sequences allow us to image with improved detail the P-wave velocity

structure beneath Sumatra and adjacent regions. Below northern Sumatra, we find that the slab is folded at depth, exhibiting geometry similar to that of the volcanic arc and the trench at the surface. We speculate that this fold plays a major role in the segmentation of the Sumatra megathrust, and may impede rupture propagation in the region. North of Sumatra, significant slab material in the mantle transition zone is imaged for the first time, and we infer the presence of a major tear between the upper mantle and transition zone there.

Octubre de 2008
Atmospheric correction of SeaWiFS ocean color imagery in the presence of absorbing aerosols off the Indian coast using a neuro-variational method
Authors: J. Brajard, C. Moulin et al
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Abstract
This paper presents a comparison of the atmospheric correction accuracy between the standard sea-viewing wide field-of-view sensor (SeaWiFS) algorithm and the NeuroVaria algorithm for the ocean off the Indian coast in March 1999. NeuroVaria is a general method developed to retrieve aerosol optical properties and water-leaving reflectances for all types of

aerosols, including absorbing ones. It has been applied to SeaWiFS images of March 1999, during an episode of transport of absorbing aerosols coming from pollutant sources in India. Water-leaving reflectances and aerosol optical thickness estimated by the two methods were extracted along a transect across the aerosol plume for three days. The comparison showed that NeuroVaria allows the retrieval of oceanic properties in the presence of absorbing aerosols with a better spatial and temporal stability than the standard SeaWiFS algorithm. NeuroVaria was then applied to the available SeaWiFS images over a two-week period. NeuroVaria algorithm retrieves ocean products for a larger number of pixels than the standard one and eliminates most of the discontinuities and artifacts associated with the standard algorithm in presence of absorbing aerosols.

Octubre de 2008
Characterization of the shallow structures of active fault zones using 3-D ground-penetrating radar data
Authors: Alastair F. McClymont, Alan G. Green et al
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Abstract
Where they can be correlated with geological exposures and trenches, 3-D ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data can contribute critical subsurface information to paleoseismic investigations. Because active faults are typically characterized by complicated near-surface structures that vary with the styles of faulting and the types of rock that are ruptured, GPR data can be difficult to interpret. We have acquired 3-D GPR data sets across three active fault zones within New Zealand that have different deformation styles: the strike-slip Wellington fault zone, reverse faults of the Ostler fault zone, and normal faults of the Maleme fault zone. To improve our

interpretation of the processed GPR volumes, we employed two suites of geometric attributes. The first suite was computed using a coherence-based algorithm. It provided estimates of the coherency, azimuth, and dip of reflections. The second suite quantified the volumetric textures of reflections, which allowed different reflection facies to be defined objectively. We have demonstrated how some attributes were more successful at visualizing certain structural or depositional characteristics than others. For example, the coherency attribute was an excellent tool for highlighting normal faults within volcanic deposits of the Maleme fault zone, whereas the texture-based attributes were most useful for discriminating between the gravel and metasediment units juxtaposed by the Wellington fault zone. Our GPR data sets and associated attribute volumes showed details of near-surface fault geometry that were not obvious from surface mapping, and they revealed evidence of off-fault deformation, gravitational collapse, and topple structures.

Octubre de 2008
A Poisson model for earthquake frequency uncertainties in seismic hazard analysis
Authors: J. Greenhough and I. G. Main
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Abstract
Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete and of unequal variance. In general, the observed number in any given magnitude range is

described by a binomial distribution which, given a large total number of events of all magnitudes, approximates to a Poisson distribution for a sufficiently small probability associated with that range. In this paper, we examine four earthquake catalogues: New Zealand (Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences), Southern California (Southern California Earthquake Center), the Preliminary Determination of Epicentres and the Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (both held by the United States Geological Survey). Using independent Poisson distributions to model the observations, we demonstrate a simple way of estimating the uncertainty on the total number of events occurring in a fixed time period.

Octubre de 2008
Maximum entropy production and earthquake dynamics
Authors: Ian G. Main and Mark Naylor
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Abstract
We examine the consistency of natural and model seismicity with the maximum entropy production hypothesis for open, slowly-driven, steady-state, dissipative systems. Assuming the commonly-observed power-law feedback between remote boundary stress and strain rate at steady state,

several natural observations are explained by the system organizing to maximize entropy production in a near but strictly sub-critical state. These include the low but finite seismic efficiency and stress drop, an upper magnitude cut-off that is large but finite, and the universally- observed Gutenberg-Richter b-value of 1 in frequency-magnitude data. In this state the model stress field organizes into coherent domains, providing a physical mechanism for retaining a finite memory of past events. This implies a finite degree of predictability, strongly limited theoretically by the proximity to criticality and practically by the difficulty of directly observing Earth's stress field at an equivalent resolution.

Octubre de 2008
Correlations between SO2 flux, seismicity, and outgassing activity at the open vent of Villarrica volcano, Chile
Authors: José Luis Palma, Eliza S. Calder et al
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Abstract
The characteristics of the open vent activity of Villarrica volcano, Chile, were studied in detail by integrating visual observations of the lava lake, analysis of the seismic tremor, and measurements of SO2 flux. The outgassing activity comprises a persistent gas plume emission from the bottom of the crater as well as frequent explosive events. Three main styles of bubble bursting were identified at the surface of the active lava lake: seething magma, small short-lived lava fountains, and Strombolian explosions. Seething magma consists of continual burst of relatively small bubbles (a few meters in

diameter) with varying strength over the entire surface of the lava lake. Small lava fountains, seen as a vigorous extension of seething magma, commonly have durations of 20-120 s and reach 10-40 m high above the lava lake. Correlations between seismicity and visual observations indicate that the seismic tremor is mostly caused by the explosive outgassing activity. Furthermore, for different periods between 2000 and 2006, during which the activity remained comparable, the real-time seismic amplitude measurement system (RSAM) and SO2 emission rates show a very good correlation. Higher SO2 emissions appeared to be related to higher levels of the lava lake, stronger bubble bursting activity, and changes in the morphology and texture of the crater floor. Background (low) levels of activity correspond to a lava lake located >80 m below the crater rim, small and/or blocky morphology of the roof, seismic amplitude (RSAM) lower than 25 units, few volcano-tectonic earthquakes, and daily averages of SO2 emissions lower than 600 Mg/d.

Octubre de 2008
Rupture process of four medium-sized earthquakes that occurred in the Gulf of California
Authors: Héctor E. Rodríguez-Lozoya, Luis Quintanar et al
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Abstract
Four medium-sized earthquakes (M w Global CMT project 5.5, 5.6, 5.9, 6.3; hereinafter named Topolobampo, Angel de la Guarda, San Lorenzo, and Loreto earthquakes, respectively) located in the Gulf of California Extensional Province were studied to obtain their kinematic rupture processes. A network of broadband seismic stations located around the Gulf of California recorded the events (Network of Autonomously Recording Seismographs-Baja and Red Sísmica de Banda Ancha). Inversion of the seismic moment tensor and body waveform modeling were used to obtain the fault geometry and slip distribution on the fault plane, respectively. From these analyses, we obtained source depths of the order of 5.5 ± 0.5 km. We found also that the

source rupture processes of the Topolobampo and Angel de la Guarda events have simple moment rate functions and source time durations of 5.0 ± 1.2 and 4.2 ± 1.2 s, respectively. The Topolobampo event was a right-lateral strike-slip event, and Angel de la Guarda was a normal event. The San Lorenzo and Loreto shocks show a rather complex rupture, with source time durations of 7.5 ± 1.2 and 9.0 ± 1.2 s, respectively. For these earthquakes, we tested the resolution of numerical results, performing an extra inversion with smoother waveforms. The new inversions do not show the separated patches of slip, as in the first analysis, but the slip distribution has an elongated shape not characteristic of simple events. We cannot therefore conclude rupture propagation for the San Lorenzo event, although the extent of the patch for the Loreto earthquake agrees with aftershock locations. Estimates of source time durations for these earthquakes are at the upper limit of the values found for earthquakes elsewhere. Directions of P axes are in the same order of magnitude as the maximum horizontal stress obtained for the so-called Gulf of California stress province from borehole elongations, focal plane solutions, and fault slip data.

Octubre de 2008
The nonseismic tsunami observed in the Bulgarian Black Sea on 7 May 2007: Was it due to a submarine landslide?
Authors: Boyko Ranguelov, Stefano Tinti et al
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Abstract
A tsunami-like sea disturbance of nonseismic origin was observed on 7 May 2007 on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast. The maximum wave amplitude was three meters, and the sea oscillations lasted for several hours. The anomalous behaviour was seen in many places

of the coast of Bulgaria and was stronger in the north. Several accounts of eyewitnesses as well as reports of local port authorities and three tide-gauge recordings are available and have been collected and analysed. The tsunami could have been produced by a submarine landslide or by atmospheric pressure pulses. Here, we explore the former hypothesis, i.e., the possibility that the tsunami was induced by a landslide that may have occurred on the shelf margin off Bulgaria. By making use of numerical modelling we find that submarine mass movements taking place within a certain delimited source area off Bulgaria may have generated tsunamis compatible with the observations.

Septiembre de 2008
Experimental determination of the elasticity of iron at high pressure
Authors: Wendy L. Mao, Viktor V. Struzhkin et al
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Abstract
We present a multitechnique approach to experimentally determine the elastic anisotropy of polycrystalline hcp Fe at high pressure. Directional phonon measurements from inelastic X-ray scattering on a sample with lattice preferred orientation at 52 GPa in a diamond anvil cell were coupled with X-ray diffraction data to determine the elastic tensor. Comparison of the results from this

new method with the elasticity determined by lattice strain analysis of radial X-ray diffraction measurements showed significant differences, highlighting the importance of strength anisotropy in hcp Fe. At 52 GPa, we found that a method which combines results from inelastic scattering and pressure-volume measurements gives a shape in the velocity anisotropy close to sigmoidal (with a faster c and slower a axis) a smaller magnitude in the anisotropy and compared to velocities based on the lattice strain method which gives a bell shape velocity distribution with the fast direction between the c and a axes. We used additional results from nuclear resonant inelastic X-ray scattering to constrain errors and provide additional validation of the accuracy of our results.

Septiembre de 2008
Magnetospheric amplification and emission triggering by ELF/VLF waves injected by the 3.6 MW HAARP ionospheric heater
Authors: M. Golkowski, U. S. Inan et al
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Abstract
The HF dipole array of the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) in Gakona, Alaska, was recently upgraded to 180 elements, facilitating operations at a total radiated power level of 3.6 MW and an effective radiated power of ~575 MW. In the first experiments at the new power level, the HAARP array is used for magnetospheric wave injection. Modulated heating of auroral electrojet currents in the ionosphere yields radiation in the ELF/VLF frequency range. The HAARP-generated signals are injected into the magnetosphere, where they propagate in the whistler mode in field-aligned "ducts," allowing them to be observed at the

conjugate point on a ship-borne receiver and on autonomous buoy platforms. The observation of the 1-hop signals is accompanied by the observation of associated 2-hop components in the northern hemisphere, which have reflected from the ionospheric boundary in the southern hemisphere. The observed signals are accompanied by triggered emissions and exhibit temporal amplification of 15-25 dB/s and bandwidth broadening to ~50 Hz. Amplification occurs at injected signal frequencies selected in near real time on the basis of observations of natural emission activity, and only certain components of the frequency-time formats transmitted are amplified. Observations at multiple sites and dispersion analysis show that the signals are injected into the magnetosphere directly above the HF heater. The duration of echo observation and the prevalence of 1-hop observations are consistent with statistics from 1986 Siple Station experiments. The particle-trapping wave amplitude near the magnetic equator is estimated in the range 0.1-0.4 pT and gyroresonance with 10 keV-100 keV electrons.

Septiembre de 2008
Spectral element modeling of spontaneous earthquake rupture on rate and state faults: Effect of velocity-strengthening friction at shallow depths
Authors: Y. Kaneko, N. Lapusta et al
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Abstract
We develop a spectral element method (SEM) for simulating dynamic rupture on rate and state faults and use it to study how the rupture is affected by a shallow fault region of steady state velocity-strengthening friction. Our comparison of the developed SEM and a spectral boundary integral method (BIM) for an antiplane (two-dimensional) test problem shows that for the finest resolution that we use, the two methods produce virtually identical solutions, with negligible differences in rupture arrival times and peak slip velocities (less than 0.05% of their absolute values). The convergence with grid

reduction of the developed SEM is comparable to that of BIM. We also use the test problem to compare numerical resolution required for different state evolution laws and for linear slip-weakening friction. Using our three-dimensional implementation of the methodology, we find that a shallow velocity-strengthening fault region can significantly alter dynamic rupture and ground motion. The velocity-strengthening region suppresses supershear propagation at the free surface occurring in the absence of such region, which could explain the lack of universally observed supershear rupture near the free surface. In addition, the velocity-strengthening region promotes faster falloff of slip velocity behind the rupture front and decreases final slip throughout the entire fault, causing a smaller average stress drop. The slip decrease is largest in the shallow parts of the fault, resulting in a depth profile of slip qualitatively consistent with observations of shallow coseismic slip deficit. The shallow velocity-strengthening region also reduces the amplification of strong ground motion due to a low-velocity bulk structure.

Septiembre de 2008
Inverse groundwater modeling for hydraulic conductivity estimation using Bayesian model averaging and variance window
Authors: Frank T.-C. Tsai and Xiaobao Li
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Abstract
This study proposes a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method to address parameter estimation uncertainty arising from nonuniqueness in parameterization methods. BMA is able to incorporate multiple parameterization methods for prediction through the law of total probability and to obtain an ensemble average of hydraulic conductivity estimates. Two major issues in applying BMA to hydraulic conductivity estimation are discussed. The first problem is using Occam's window in usual BMA applications to measure approximated posterior model probabilities. Occam's window only accepts

models in a very narrow range, tending to single out the best method and discard other good methods. We propose a variance window to replace Occam's window to cope with this problem. The second problem is the Kashyap information criterion (KIC) in the approximated posterior model probabilities, which tends to prefer highly uncertain parameterization methods by considering the Fisher information matrix. With sufficient amounts of observation data, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is a good approximation and is able to avoid controversial results from using KIC. This study adopts multiple generalized parameterization (GP) methods such as the BMA models to estimate spatially correlated hydraulic conductivity. Numerical examples illustrate the issues of using KIC and Occam's window and show the advantages of using BIC and the variance window in BMA application. Finally, we apply BMA to the hydraulic conductivity estimation of the "1500-foot" sand in East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana.

Septiembre de 2008
Impact fracturing and structural modification of sedimentary rocks at Meteor Crater, Arizona
Authors: P. Senthil Kumar and David A. Kring
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Abstract
Meteor Crater provides a rare opportunity to study impact deformation of sedimentary target rocks and isolate those features from preexisting tectonic deformation and impact-generated reactivation of preexisting tectonic features. This study reports over 2500 new measurements of orientations of bedding, faults, and fractures in crater walls and in surrounding bedrock. Target rocks are characterized by horizontal bedding planes that are cut by at least three prominent sets of preimpact tectonic fracture systems. The crater rim is also cut by three distinct groups of fractures: radial, concentric, and conical fractures. When the crater rim is restored to preimpact

condition, the radial and concentric fractures resemble preimpact fracture populations, indicating that crater wall deformation and rim uplift were partly accommodated by activation of preexisting fractures. In contrast, the conical fractures are dissimilar to the preimpact fractures and apparently formed as a direct result of impact deformation. Some of the preimpact fractures were transformed into tear faults during the impact event, and motion along those faults appears to have controlled the geometry of the impact deformational features. The crater rim is, thus, square in plan view rather than circular. Faults occurring in the crater diagonals are prominent ones, allowing greater vertical displacement. The deformation pattern of Meteor Crater is different from that at Lonar Crater, which was excavated in basalt with fewer preimpact fractures. The differences between deformation at Meteor Crater and Lonar Crater may reflect the same disparities seen in simple craters produced in different target lithologies on Mars and other planetary surfaces.

Septiembre de 2008
Modeling the mechanics of rate and state friction with linear viscoelasticity
Authors: Joseph B. Walsh and David L. Goldsby
Link: Click Aquí

Abstract
In slide-hold-slide friction experiments, rock surfaces loaded by normal stress s slide against one another at velocity V until steady-state conditions prevail; the applied shear stress t required for steady-state sliding is fs, where f is the friction coefficient. Sliding is then stopped abruptly for a specified hold time t H , and then resumed at velocity V. Shear stress t and the separation delta w between the rough surfaces are measured throughout the test. During the hold period, both applied shear stress and separation are found to decay with time from their steady-state values. We show that the constitutive behavior in shear during the hold period is in effect a relaxation test, and likewise, the closure measurements describe a creep test. Analyzing the data in detail, we find that they can be modeled

as the response of a standard linear solid, with a characteristic time T 1 for creep of 1900 s and a characteristic time T 2 for relaxation of 1400 s. The shear stress required to initiate sliding at the end of the hold period is found to peak k f sigma above the steady-state stress f sigma, then decay over a distance D c to the steady-state value. In our experiments, measurements of separation and shear load were made for hold periods as long as 106 s, i.e., one hundred times longer than in similar previous studies. We find that our measured values of delta f increase gradually with increasing hold times-in agreement with previous measurements up to about 104 s-but then approach a limiting value asymptotically. In our analysis we show that delta f is equal to (1 + f ^2) delta sigma H /f lambda, where delta d H is the total decrease in separation during the hold period and lambda is a length parameter that describes the roughness of the surfaces. The parameter D c is found to be given by delta sigma H / delta f. Using measurements from our experiments, we find that both relationships are valid to a reasonable degree, considering the uncertainties in the data and the simplicity of the analysis.

Septiembre de 2008
Seismicity on volcanoes generated by gas slug ascent
Authors: G. S. O'Brien and C. J. Bean
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Abstract
Very long period (VLP) signals provide a unique insight into the source process of seismic signals recorded on active or restless volcanoes. This is due to the large wavelengths that may allow the structural heterogeneity to be ignored hence

source inversions can be calculated. The source process involved in such events is thought to be related to magma transport, gas slug ascent or dike resonance initiated by a fluid driven process. Numerical modelling of gas slug ascent (constrained by results from published laboratory experiments) shows that this process is capable of generating long period and VLP like signals. Inputting the fluid dynamic derived forces into an elastic medium, with volcano like topography, VLP signals are reproduced. A moment tensor inversion is performed on these synthetic VLP signals retrieving the correct input source mechanism (a pipe structure).

Septiembre de 2008
Detection of motion and heterogeneity in Earth's liquid outer core
Authors: Wei Dai and Xiaodong Song
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Abstract
The lateral variations in the fluid outer core are believed to be very small from fluid dynamics calculations. Seismological studies on the issue have been limited and controversial. A great challenge is to sort out influences from heterogeneity in the mantle or the inner core. Using high-quality earthquake waveform doublets, we found that waves passing through the fluid

core over a few years are significantly more variable than those passing through the mantle only. We interpret the temporal variability as the result of the fluid motion of the heterogeneous materials in the outer core. The level of heterogeneity in the fluid outer core is constrained to be ±0.022 s (95% confidence) in seismic travel times through the core, negligible for most seismological studies. However, the estimated velocity perturbation, about 10-3 for small-scale heterogeneity (10 km) or 10-4 for large-scale heterogeneity (1000 km), borders or exceeds the high-end estimates of the lateral variations that can be supported by dynamic forces within the fluid core. The source of the heterogeneity is not clear at present.

Septiembre de 2008
Multiobjective training of artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff modeling
Authors: N. J. de Vos and T. H. M. Rientjes
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Abstract
This paper presents results on the application of various optimization algorithms for the training of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff models. Multilayered feed-forward networks for forecasting discharge from two mesoscale catchments in different climatic regions have been developed for this purpose. The performances of the multiobjective algorithms Multi Objective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis-University of Arizona (MOSCEM-UA) and Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) have been compared to the single-objective Levenberg-Marquardt and Genetic Algorithm for training of

these models. Performance has been evaluated by means of a number of commonly applied objective functions and also by investigating the internal weights of the networks. Additionally, the effectiveness of a new objective function called mean squared derivative error, which penalizes models for timing errors and noisy signals, has been explored. The results show that the multiobjective algorithms give competitive results compared to the single-objective ones. Performance measures and posterior weight distributions of the various algorithms suggest that multiobjective algorithms are more consistent in finding good optima than are single-objective algorithms. However, results also show that it is difficult to conclude if any of the algorithms is superior in terms of accuracy, consistency, and reliability. Besides the training algorithm, network performance is also shown to be sensitive to the choice of objective function(s), and including more than one objective function proves to be helpful in constraining the neural network training.

Septiembre de 2008
The drying of Titan's dunes: Titan's methane hydrology and its impact on atmospheric circulation
Author: Jonathan L. Mitchell
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Abstract
We explore the effect of a finite reservoir of methane on Titan's atmospheric circulation, precipitation patterns, and surface methane content. We develop a soil model that accounts for the methane cycle in the surface-atmosphere system, and we implement this surface model in a two-dimensional model of the Titan's atmosphere. Seasonal oscillations in latitude of the large-scale circulation accomplish net drying of the low-latitude surface by diverging methane vapor from low latitudes to higher latitudes. Simulations with an initially deep methane

reservoir indicate this mechanism is able to dry ~1.75 meters of liquid methane per Titan year from the low-latitude surface. The existence of low-latitude desert morphologies suggests that the system has had sufficient time to completely remove the surface methane by this mechanism. We then varied the reservoir size, focusing on initial depths of 30 meters of liquid methane or less and compared the results to available observations. The climate system has an abrupt transition to a warmer state with less precipitation and nearly global surface drying near the level at which the atmosphere can store the majority of the methane reservoir as vapor or around 6.5 meters of equivalent liquid methane for our particular choice of parameters. A comparison of our model results with Huygens' observations suggests Titan's climate mimics a state in which most of the methane inventory with direct access to the atmosphere (i.e., excluding underground sources) is stored in the atmosphere.

Agosto de 2008
A double branching model for earthquake occurrence
Authors: Warner Marzocchi and Anna Maria Lombardi
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Abstract
The purpose of this work is to put forward a double branching model to describe the spatiotemporal earthquake occurrence. The model, applied to two worldwide catalogs in different time-magnitude windows, shows a good fit to the data, and its earthquake forecasting performances are superior to what was obtained by the ETAS (first-step branching model) and by the Poisson model. The results obtained also

provide interesting insights about the physics of the earthquake generation process and the time evolution of seismicity. In particular, the so-called background seismicity, i.e., the catalog after removing short-time clustered events, is described by a further (second-step model) branching characterized by a longer time-space clustering that may be due to long-term seismic interaction. Notably, this branching highlights a long-term temporal evolution of the seismicity that is never taken into account in seismic hazard assessment or in the definition of reference seismicity models for a large earthquake occurrence. Another interesting issue is related to the parameters of the short-term clustering that appear constant in a different magnitude window, supporting some sort of universality for the generating process.

Agosto de 2008
Caracterización geofísica y textural de la actividad basáltica explosiva del volcán Villarrica
Autores: L. Gurioli, A. J. L. Harris et al
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Abstract
El volcán Villarrica en Chile, es uno de los volcanes más activos de Sudamérica. Su actividad es actualmente caracterizada por la continua desgasificación de su cumbre a través de su conducto de tipo lago de lava y perturbado por eventos explosivos. Durante un periodo de diez días en noviembre de 2004 se desarrolló una serie de experimentos multidisciplinarios para caracterizar las emisiones y deducir la dinámica de su centro basáltico. Las experiencias incluyeron recolección de datos térmicos, sísmicos e infrasónicos para describir la actividad interna estándar del cráter, junto con el muestreo textural y químico del material eyectado durante los eventos más energéticos. La actividad estándar fue caracterizada por emisiones gaseosas con una frecuencia de ~ 9 eventos por minuto. Esto incluyó burbujeo y "reventones" ubicados en su mayoría en los bordes inferiores de los muros del cráter. La distribución del material eyectado durante los eventos más energéticos incluyó tanto escoria como golden pómez. Estos dos tipos de clastos presentan diferente textura, pero idéntica composición vidriosa, sugiriendo que experimentaron diferentes historias. La pómez golden es interpretada como una expansión interna y rápida del magma ascendente. La escoria se forma en el exterior y por compresión del material desgasificado en la porción superior del conducto. Así es como se consigue una gran columna superior desgasificada que alimenta el burbujeo permanente, a través del cual surge material fresco que ocasionalmente origina eventos de relativamente alta energía.

Agosto de 2008
Textural and geophysical characterization of explosive basaltic activity at Villarrica volcano
Authors: L. Gurioli, A. J. L. Harris et al
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Abstract
Villarrica volcano (Chile) is one of the most active volcanoes in South America. Its activity is currently characterized by continuous degassing from a summit lava lake/vent punctuated by explosive events. During November 2004 a multidisciplinary experiment was deployed for a 10-d period to define the style of emission and infer shallow conduit dynamics at this basaltic center. This involved collection of thermal, seismic and infrasonic data to describe the background activity confined inside the crater, and use of samples to texturally and chemically characterize the ejecta from more energetic explosions able to attain the crater rim. The background activity was characterized by gas bursting with a frequency of ~9 events per minute. This involved emission of gas puffs fed by bubble bursting, with larger bursts emplacing sheets of magma onto the lower crater walls. The ejecta population from the more energetic events was characterized by the coexistence of both scoriae and golden pumice. These two types of clasts have different textures but identical glass compositions, suggesting that they underwent different conduit histories. The golden pumice is interpreted as the expanding inner part of a short-lived jet fed by a rapidly ascending, magma batch. The scoria forms the outer portion of the jet and comprises degassed material entrained during passage of the fresh batch through material residing in the upper-most portion of the conduit. We thus have a largely degassed upper column that feeds persistent bubble bursting, through which fresh batches occasionally rise to feed events of relatively higher energy.

Julio de 2008
Gradiometry for polarized seismic waves
Authors: Charles A. Langston and Chuntao Liang
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Abstract
Wave gradiometry for a generic point source wave model in cylindrical coordinates is developed to utilize the horizontal components of seismic wavefields. Attributes of P-SV and SH waves such as horizontal slowness and its change, the change in geometrical spreading, the change in radiation pattern, azimuth of propagation, and wave polarization can be determined by measuring the horizontal strains and rotations of the wavefield along with three components of displacement. Gradiometer cells composed of an

array of three-component seismographs can be used to provide estimates of the wave gradients. Alternatively, a single three-component seismograph collocated with an areal strainmeter (for P-SV waves) or a rotation sensor (for SH waves) can be used to estimate wave polarization and the slowness/amplitude behavior of one aspect of the wavefield. Wave gradients are computed for the 1 April 2007 Solomon Island earthquake using data from the ANZA Seismic Network in southern California and show excellent consistency among stations of the network. Azimuth and slowness of various long-period teleseismic waves are recovered using gradiometry analysis. The consistency of strains computed from the broadband array suggests that they may be used to calibrate Plate Boundary Observatory tensor strainmeters in the region.

Julio de 2008
Sudden termination of Martian dynamo?: Implications from subcritical dynamo simulations
Authors: W. Kuang, W. Jiang et al
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Abstract
The crustal magnetism measured by the Mars Global Surveyor requires that Mars possessed a strong internal field generated by a core dynamo in its early history. We use a numerical model to

simulate the early Martian dynamo, focusing on the minimum energy for sustaining an established dynamo. Our results show that near its end, the Martian dynamo could reverse frequently, and could be subcritical: the energy to sustain the dynamo is significantly less than that to excite the dynamo. In addition to a longer lifetime, the subcritical dynamo implies that it could be terminated suddenly with a very small perturbation and, once turned off, it could not be reactivated without substantial increase of the buoyancy force in the Martian core.

Julio de 2008
Rupture velocity estimation of large deep-focus earthquakes surrounding Japan
Authors: Sun-Cheon Park and Jim Mori et al
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Abstract
Rupture velocity is an important source parameter, which is often difficult to determine, especially for deep-focus earthquakes where there is usually limited near-source information. To help overcome this problem, we developed a new method to estimate rupture velocities of deep-focus earthquakes with better resolution. We first carry out teleseismic P waveform inversions to determine slip distributions for a range of rupture

velocities on the two nodal planes. Then forward modeling of regional data is performed using the slip distributions determined in the teleseismic inversions to estimate the rupture velocity. Using this method, we attempted to determine the rupture velocities of large deep-focus earthquakes surrounding Japan, which are well recorded on teleseismic and regional networks. Empirical Green functions are used for both the teleseismic and regional analyses. Although it is difficult to determine the rupture velocity from only the teleseismic data, the analyses including regional data show clear difference which can resolve the rupture velocity and fault geometry. For three deep earthquakes, we obtained rupture velocities of about 1~2 km/s, which correspond to 20~40% of the shear wave velocity and are much slower than typical values for shallow earthquakes.

Julio de 2008
Synthesis of vector-wave envelopes in 3-D random media characterized by a nonisotropic Gaussian ACF based on the Markov approximation
Author: Haruo Sato
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Abstract
The earthquake source duration is short; however, the apparent duration time of observed seismogram increases with travel distance. The amplitude excitation is observed even on the transverse component for P waves, on the longitudinal component for S waves. These phenomena are well explained by scattering due to random velocity inhomogeneities around the global seismic ray. We directly synthesize vector-wave envelopes in 3-D random elastic media statistically characterized by a nonisotropic Gaussian autocorrelation function (ACF). The method uses the Markov approximation in the case that the wavelength is shorter than the correlation distance and the ray direction is

parallel to one of the principal axes of the ACF. A spherical outgoing vector wavelet radiated from a point source in the random elastic media is used as a basic model for high-frequency seismogram envelopes from micro-earthquakes in the inhomogeneous lithosphere. The stochastic master equation for the two-frequency mutual coherence function (TFMCF) of the potential field is analytically solved. The Fourier transform of TFMCF gives mean square (MS) envelopes of band-pass filtered vector-wave traces. If the ACF is axially symmetric around the ray direction, MS envelopes of vector components are analytically solved. The aspect ratio of the correlation distance in the longitudinal direction to that in the transverse direction is the key parameter for the envelope broadening and the excitation in the orthogonal component. Envelope broadening becomes longer and the transverse (longitudinal) component amplitude increases for a P wavelet (for an S wavelet) when the correlation distance in the transverse plane becomes smaller. When the vertical correlation distance is shorter than the horizontal one as seen in the real Earth, the envelope broadening is larger for horizontal raypaths compared with vertical raypaths.

Julio de 2008
Coherent electric structures: Vlasov-Ampère simulations and observational consequences
Authors: C. Briand, A. Mangeney et al
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Abstract
Coherent electrostatic structures, like bipolar electric pulses (also called electrostatic solitary waves) or Langmuir waves, are frequently observed in many astrophysical plasma of the Earth environment (plasma sheet boundary layer, Earth bow shock, auroral regions etc.) or in the solar wind. They are thought to play a crucial role in the energy transfer from small to large scale and to reconnection processes. Numerous simulations have studied their emergence and evolution. Most of them are based on the

development of two stream instabilities. Another mechanism is investigated here: the plasma is excited by a localized, time dependent modulation of the electron distribution function (heating of the electrons). The investigation is performed through a 1D Vlasov-Ampere code, in open boundary conditions. We explore the response of the plasma to several heating conditions, mass ratio and density gradient. We find that the heating leads to the development of an extended turbulent domain. We also show that the history of the electrostatic solitary waves (ESW) strongly depends on the presence of a density gradient and the mass ratio between species. If the positive charged neutralizing background is composed of heavy ions, the ESW turns back to the entrance domain when a density gradient is included. From the observational point of view, this means that the electric field shows a polarity reversal with time.

Julio de 2008
Electrical conductivity beneath the Bolivian Orocline and its relation to subduction processes at the South American continental margin
Authors: Heinrich Brasse and Diane Eydam
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Abstract
A long-period magnetotelluric data set was obtained during 2002 and 2004 in the central Andes to study the deep electrical conductivity structure in the region of the Bolivian Orocline between latitudes 17°S and 19°S. The profile extends from the Coastal Cordillera in northernmost Chile, crosses the volcanic arc and the Altiplano high plateau in central Bolivia, and ends in the Eastern Cordillera. Two-dimensional inversion revealed several well-defined conductivity anomalies: in upper crustal levels the

conductive sedimentary basins of the central Altiplano and the resistive Arequipa block beneath the western Altiplano are imaged. Earlier seismological and magnetotelluric investigations on the southern Altiplano inferred a large, highly conductive (partially molten) body in the mid to deep crust. It was assumed that this structure would be underlying the entire plateau, but this is not the case according to the new models. Instead, the most prominent feature in the new investigation area is a high-conductivity zone at upper mantle depths below the high plateau, which may be interpreted as an image of partial melts and fluids triggered by water supply from the subducting Nazca slab. This conductor would be in accordance with the standard subduction scenario; it is, however, laterally offset by almost 100 km from the volcanic arc. In contrast, the deep crust and upper mantle beneath the arc is moderately resistive. Both observations may hint at an emerging shift of the magmatic/fluid system in the central Andes.

Julio de 2008
Three-dimensional VP and VP/VS structure of the upper crust in the Erzincan basin (eastern Turkey)
Authors: Bülent Kaypak
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Abstract
Using aftershocks of the 13 March 1992 Erzincan earthquake (Ms = 6.8) three dimensional V P and V P/V S velocity structure of the Erzincan basin and its surroundings were modeled by local earthquake tomography. Travel times of body waves, belonging to 1025 selected high-quality events recorded by 58 temporary stations, were inverted iteratively and simultaneously by using the SIMUL2000 algorithm. Synthetic and resolution tests were performed to analyze the sensitivity of tomographic results and model parameterization. The resulting 3-D V P and V P/V S tomographic images show velocity anomalies related to geologic and tectonic structures beneath the Erzincan basin. While low V P anomalies down to 2-3 km depths are associated

to thick Neogene sediments deposited in the Erzincan basin, high V P anomalies indicate bed rocks and intrusive magmatic rocks beneath the mountain ranges. V P/V S anomalies are an important indicator of local tectonic structures, and the physical, mechanical, and compositional variations in the rocks. The low V P/V S anomalies (=1.7) observed at shallow depths (0-4 km) track the main fault systems and thus the weakness zones in the basin. The high V P/V S anomalies (=1.9) located between 4 and 6 km depth in the southeast of the Erzincan basin may correspond to fluid saturation, high pore pressure, and carbonate content in the rock matrix. The high V P/V S ratios play an important role for increasing seismicity in this area because of the fluid saturation and the high pore pressure. Finally, on the basis of the 3-D tomographic images, basement of the Erzincan basin deepens down to about 10 km depth and possesses an irregular and asymmetric shape. The thick and unconsolidated sedimentary layer increases seismic risk to Erzincan and other cities located on the basin as it magnifies ground motion caused by large earthquakes.

Julio de 2008
Multiobjective genetic algorithm inversion of ground deformation and gravity changes spanning the 1981 eruption of Etna volcano
Authors: Daniele Carbone, Gilda Currenti et al
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Abstract
During the last few decades, joint investigations of microgravity and surface deformation measurements have played an increasingly important role in studying the internal dynamics of active volcanoes. Deformation and microgravity observations have been accomplished at Mt Etna since the eighties. Past data sets collected during important paroxysmal events can be utilized as case-studies to both (1) test the possibilities of nowadays more powerful inversion tools and improved analytical formulations to model the source-mechanisms of volcano-related deformation and gravity changes and (2) in turn obtain new insights into the functioning of the plumbing system of the volcano. Here we analyze a data set spanning the March 1981 eruption of Mt. Etna. Large horizontal displacements were

evidenced on the NE and SW flanks of the volcano through electrooptical distance measurements (EDM) during two 20-month periods, both encompassing the March 1981 eruption. Elevation changes, evidenced through leveling measurements, during a 12-month period spanning the eruption, were in general smaller than horizontal displacements with important amplitudes only close to the eruptive fissure. Gravity measurements, carried out together with leveling measurements, evidenced positive changes, spatially well correlated with elevation changes, but having a larger wavelength. The joint inversion of the multimethod geophysical data is regarded as a multiobjective optimization problem and solved through a Genetic Algorithm technique of the nondominated type. We conclude that a composite intrusive mechanism with two tensile cracks, each associated to a zone where preexisting microfractures were filled with new magma, leaded to the 1981 eruption. The results of the present study highlight the advantages of multiobjective evolutionary algorithms, as a powerful tool to jointly invert multimethod geophysical data, and pose important issues on the subject of volcano-monitoring.

Julio de 2008
The 2005 catastrophic acid crater lake drainage, lahar, and acidic aerosol formation at Mount Chiginagak volcano, Alaska, USA: Field observations and preliminary water and vegetation chemistry results
Authors: Janet R. Schaefer, William E. Scott et al
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Abstract
A mass of snow and ice 400-m-wide and 105-m-thick began melting in the summit crater of Mount Chiginagak volcano sometime between November 2004 and early May 2005, presumably owing to increased heat flux from the hydrothermal system, or possibly from magma intrusion and degassing. In early May 2005, an estimated 3.8 × 106 m3 of sulfurous, clay-rich debris and acidic water, with an accompanying acidic aerosol component, exited the crater through a tunnel at the base of a glacier that breaches the south crater rim. Over 27 km downstream, the acidic waters of the flood inundated an important salmon spawning drainage, acidifying Mother Goose Lake from surface to depth (approximately 0.5 km3 in volume at a pH of 2.9 to 3.1), killing all aquatic life, and preventing the annual salmon run. Over 2

months later, crater lake water sampled 8 km downstream of the outlet after considerable dilution from glacial meltwater was a weak sulfuric acid solution (pH = 3.2, SO4 = 504 mg/L, Cl = 53.6 mg/L, and F = 7.92 mg/L). The acid flood waters caused severe vegetation damage, including plant death and leaf kill along the flood path. The crater lake drainage was accompanied by an ambioructic flow of acidic aerosols that followed the flood path, contributing to defoliation and necrotic leaf damage to vegetation in a 29 km2 area along and above affected streams, in areas to heights of over 150 m above stream level. Moss species killed in the event contained high levels of sulfur, indicating extremely elevated atmospheric sulfur content. The most abundant airborne phytotoxic constituent was likely sulfuric acid aerosols that were generated during the catastrophic partial crater lake drainage event. Two mechanisms of acidic aerosol formation are proposed: (1) generation of aerosol mist through turbulent flow of acidic water and (2) catastrophic gas exsolution. This previously undocumented phenomenon of simultaneous vegetation-damaging acidic aerosols accompanying drainage of an acidic crater lake has important implications for the study of hazards associated with active volcanic crater lakes.

Julio de 2008
S wave velocity structure of the Arabian Shield upper mantle from Rayleigh wave tomography
Authors: Yongcheol Park, Andrew A. Nybladeet al
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Abstract
The shear wave velocity structure of the shallow upper mantle beneath the Arabian Shield was modeled by inverting Rayleigh wave phase velocity measurements between 45 and 140 s together with previously published Rayleigh wave group velocity measurements between 10 and 45 s. For measuring phase velocities, we applied a modified array method to data from several regional networks that minimizes the distortion of raypaths caused by lateral heterogeneity. The new shear wave velocity model shows a broad low-velocity region to depths of ~150 km in the mantle across the Shield and a narrower low-velocity region at depths =150 km localized along the Red Sea coast and Makkah-Madinah-Nafud (MMN) volcanic line. The velocity reduction in the upper

mantle corresponds to a temperature anomaly of ~250-330 K. These findings, in particular the region of continuous low velocities along the Red Sea and MMN volcanic line, do not support interpretations for the origin of the Cenozoic plateau uplift and volcanism on the Shield invoking two separate plumes. When combined with images of the 410 and 660 km discontinuities, body wave tomographic models, a S wave polarization analysis, and SKS splitting results for the Arabian Peninsula, the anomalous upper mantle structure in our new velocity model can be attributed to an upwelling of warm mantle rock originating in the lower mantle under Africa that crosses through the mantle transition zone beneath Ethiopia and moves to the north and northwest under the eastern margin of the Red Sea and the Arabian Shield. In this interpretation, the difference in mean elevation between the Arabian Platform and Shield can be attributed to isostatic uplift caused by heating of the lithospheric mantle under the Shield, with the significantly higher elevations along the Red Sea coast possibly resulting also from lithospheric thinning and dynamic uplift.

Julio de 2008
Estimating pore-space gas hydrate saturations from well log acoustic data
Authors: Myung W. Lee and William F. Waite
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Abstract
Relating pore-space gas hydrate saturation to sonic velocity data is important for remotely estimating gas hydrate concentration in sediment. In the present study, sonic velocities of gas hydrate-bearing sands are modeled using a three

-phase Biot-type theory in which sand, gas hydrate, and pore fluid form three homogeneous, interwoven frameworks. This theory is developed using well log compressional and shear wave velocity data from the Mallik 5L-38 permafrost gas hydrate research well in Canada and applied to well log data from hydrate-bearing sands in the Alaskan permafrost, Gulf of Mexico, and northern Cascadia margin. Velocity-based gas hydrate saturation estimates are in good agreement with Nuclear Magneto Resonance and resistivity log estimates over the complete range of observed gas hydrate saturations.

Julio de 2008
Effects of shock-induced tensile failure on mb-Ms discrimination: Contrasts between historic nuclear explosions and the North Korean test of 9 October 2006
Authors: Howard J. Patton and Steven R. Taylor
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Abstract
Rayleigh wave excitation is studied for an explosion source model consisting of a superposition of isotropic (monopole), tensile failure, and tectonic release point sources. The body-force representation for shock-induced,

deep-seated tensile failure is a compensated linear vector dipole CLVD, where the relative strength of the CLVD is given by an index K. Rayleigh wave amplitudes are reduced owing to destructive interference between an explosive monopole and a CLVD source with vertical axis of symmetry in extension (K > 1). The effect of tensile failure on M s is to enhance the explosion-like characteristics on a plot of m b -M s . This model suggests that the success of the m b -M s discriminant results from the fact that nuclear tests were conducted under containment practices for which tensile failure is ubiquitous, while the North Korean nuclear test of 9 October 2006 is a harbinger of poor m b -M s performance when tensile failure is completely suppressed.

Julio de 2008
Isotopic fractionation by diffusion in groundwater
Authors: Eric M. LaBolle, Graham E. Fogg et al
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Abstract
During the last decade, isotopic fractionation has gained acceptance as an indicator of microbiological and chemical transformations of contaminants in groundwater. These transformation processes typically favor isotopically light, compared to isotopically heavy, contaminants, resulting in enrichment of the latter in the residual aqueous phase. In these isotope applications, it has been generally presumed that physical transport processes in groundwater have a negligible effect on isotopic enrichment. It is well known, however, that aqueous phase diffusion generally proceeds faster for isotopically light, compared to isotopically heavy, solute molecules, often resulting in isotopic fractionation in groundwater. This paper considers the potential

for isotopic fractionation during transport in groundwater resulting from minute isotopic effects on aqueous diffusion coefficients. Analyses of transport in heterogeneous systems delimit the viable range of isotopic fractionation by diffusion in groundwater. Results show that diffusion can result in similar degrees of depletion and enrichment of isotopically heavy solutes during transport in heterogeneous systems with significant diffusion rate-limited mass transfer between fast- and slow-flow zones. Additional analyses and examples explore conditions that attenuate the development of significant fractionation. Examples are presented for 13C methyl tertiary butyl ether and deuterated and nondeuterated isopropanol and tertiary butyl alcohol using aqueous diffusion coefficients measured by the Taylor dispersion method with refractive index profiling as a part of this study. Examples elucidate the potential for diffusive fractionation as a confounder in isotope applications and emphasize the importance of hydrogeologic analysis for assessing the role of diffusive fractionation in isotope applications at contaminant field sites.

Julio de 2008
Nonlinear effects of temperature, fluid pressure, and inelastic porosity on dynamic fault slip and fault tip propagation: Emergence of slip strengthening and pulse-like fault slip
Authors: Takehito Suzuki, Teruo Yamashita et al
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Abstract
We theoretically study dynamic faulting, taking account of thermoporoelastic effects including inelastic porosity change; the porosity is assumed to increase with increasing fault slip. We first derive the analytical solutions for the changes of fluid pressure, temperature, and fault slip, assuming 1-D fault model. As found in our previous study, the evolution of these quantities is controlled by a single nondimensional parameter S u , a quantity proportional to the rate of increase in inelastic porosity multiplied by the thickness of shear heating zone. If we assume that

temperature elevation remains below the melting temperature of fault rocks, S u is found be close to zero or greater than unity. Our 2-D simulation shows that pulse-like slip appears when S u is greater than unity, which is a necessary consequence of the emergence of slip strengthening, while slip weakening caused by thermal pressurization arises when S u is close to zero. The applied shear stress is entirely released when S u is close to zero, while it is released only partially when S u is greater than unity, so that the latter will be more reasonable according to seismological observations. The fault tip stress increases significantly with the fault extension in classical singular fault model. In contrast, the fault tip stress is only weakly dependent on the size of extending fault in our model when S u is greater than unity, so that the fault growth is more vulnerable to spatial perturbation of model parameters. Our present study indicates the importance of slip strengthening for the understanding of dynamic faulting.

Julio de 2008
Temperature trends at high elevations: Patterns across the globe
Authors: N. C. Pepin and J. D. Lundquist
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Abstract
Most climate models suggest amplification of global warming in high mountains, but observations are less clear. Using comprehensive, homogeneity-adjusted temperature records from over 1000 high elevation stations across the globe, we examine the causes of changing temperature trends with elevation, assessing the roles of free atmospheric change, topography (exposure and aspect), and

cryospheric feedback. The data show that observed 20th century temperature trends are most rapid near the annual 0°C isotherm due to snow-ice feedback. Mountain summit and freely draining slope sites are dominated by free-air advection and thus have consistent trend magnitudes, with reduced inter-site variance in comparison with incised valley sites where local factors are more important. Thus, while there has been no simplistic elevational increase in warming rates, some generalizations can be made. Water resources and ecosystems near the 0°C isotherm in the extratropics are at increased risk from accelerated warming. The data also suggest that exposed mountain summits, away from the effects of urbanization and topographic sheltering, may provide a relatively unbiased record of the planet's climate.

Julio de 2008
Ice magnetization in the EPICA-Dome C ice core: Implication for dust sources during glacial and interglacial periods
Authors: L. Lanci, B. Delmonte et al
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Abstract
Isothermal remanent magnetization and insoluble dust content of ice samples from EPICA-Dome C ice core were measured to characterize the magnetic properties of atmospheric dust. Despite the larger concentration of dust aerosol during

glacial stages, the magnetization of the dust fraction was found to be higher during interglacials and exhibits a larger variability. Changes in magnetic mineralogy of aerosol dust in ice from different climatic stages were also characterized using coercivity of remanence. Variations of magnetic properties of dust from glacial to interglacial stages indicate changes in dust provenance, in agreement with previous results based on geochemical analysis. However, the extremely large magnetizations of some interglacial samples also suggest that episodical eolian deposition from highly magnetic deposits occurred during interglacial periods.

Julio de 2008
Venting of a separate CO2-rich gas phase from submarine arc volcanoes: Examples from the Mariana and Tonga-Kermadec arcs
Authors: John Lupton, Marvin Lilley et al
Link: Click Here

Abstract
Submersible dives on 22 active submarine volcanoes on the Mariana and Tonga-Kermadec arcs have discovered systems on six of these volcanoes that, in addition to discharging hot vent fluid, are also venting a separate CO2-rich phase either in the form of gas bubbles or liquid CO2 droplets. One of the most impressive is the Champagne vent site on NW Eifuku in the northern Mariana Arc, which is discharging cold droplets of liquid CO2 at an estimated rate of 23 mol CO2/s, about 0.1% of the global mid-ocean ridge (MOR) carbon flux. Three other Mariana Arc submarine volcanoes (NW Rota-1, Nikko, and Daikoku), and two volcanoes on the Tonga-Kermadec Arc (Giggenbach and Volcano-1) also have vent fields discharging CO2-rich gas bubbles. The vent fluids at these volcanoes have

very high CO2 concentrations and elevated C/3He and d 13C (CO2) ratios compared to MOR systems, indicating a contribution to the carbon flux from subducted marine carbonates and organic material. Analysis of the CO2 concentrations shows that most of the fluids are undersaturated with CO2. This deviation from equilibrium would not be expected for pressure release degassing of an ascending fluid saturated with CO2. Mechanisms to produce a separate CO2-rich gas phase at the seafloor require direct injection of magmatic CO2-rich gas. The ascending CO2-rich gas could then partially dissolve into seawater circulating within the volcano edifice without reaching equilibrium. Alternatively, an ascending high-temperature, CO2-rich aqueous fluid could boil to produce a CO2-rich gas phase and a CO2-depleted liquid. These findings indicate that carbon fluxes from submarine arcs may be higher than previously estimated, and that experiments to estimate carbon fluxes at submarine arc volcanoes are merited. Hydrothermal sites such as these with a separate gas phase are valuable natural laboratories for studying the effects of high CO2 concentrations on marine ecosystems.

Julio de 2008
Seasonal variation of short-period (<2 h) gravity wave activity over Gadanki, India (13.5°N, 79.2°E)
Authors: Gopa Dutta, Toshitaka Tsuda et al
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Abstract
We have analyzed the seasonal variation of short-period (<2 h) gravity wave activity in the troposphere and lower stratosphere using the wind observations made with VHF radar at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E), India. Four years of high resolution (~3 min) wind data (2003-2006) have been used to study variance and momentum flux of short-period gravity waves. Both horizontal and vertical variances show annual variation. Variances in the upper troposphere (12-16 km) and lower stratosphere (18-21 km) are found to

maximize in the wet months of June-July-August coinciding with the peaks of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the rain rate (surface and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM] 2 km rainfall). An additional strong peak of variance is observed in the height ranges of 4-12 km during spring which corresponds to TRMM storm height maximum. The measurements suggest deep convective activity to be the main source of short period gravity waves. Variances in the UTLS region are found to correlate well with square of wind shear indicating possible in situ generation of the gravity waves. Topographic generation of short period gravity waves does not seem to be important for this site. An interannual variability is observed in the measured wave activity. Zonal momentum flux shows annual variation with westward preference in the wet season whereas the meridional flux does not indicate any clear variation.

Julio de 2008
Potential of 3-D vertical seismic profiles to characterize seismogenic fault zones
Authors: Roland von Huene, Dirk Klaeschen et al
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Abstract
The potential of a 3-D vertical seismic profile (VSP) to improve resolution of seismogenic plate interfaces was explored with synthetic modeling. The 3-D VSP modeled is at a proposed site for a 1 to 1.5 km deep open hole that provides background for riser drilling. Three-dimensional

VSP images could resolve 30-60 m spaced reflective horizons in a Costa Rican subduction zone. It can record a great amount of high-fidelity S wave data to invert for physical properties, directions of strain, and pore pressure above and below the plate interface fault. A 6 km × 12 km grid of shots with a surface ship will illuminate a ~4 km × 7 km area of the plate interface fault zone with a high data density. Acquisition adds 5 to 9 days to drill ship time on site and a shooting ship. Seismic image resolution falls between that of borehole information and 3-D surface ship seismic images. A multiple-kilometer 3-D volume of high-fidelity S wave data is an exceptional addition not available with other techniques.

Julio de 2008
Upper lithospheric structure of the subduction zone offshore of southern Arauco peninsula, Chile, at ~38°S
Authors: Eduardo Contreras-Reyes, Ingo Grevemeyer et al
Link: Click Here

Abstract
A joint interpretation of swath bathymetric, seismic refraction, wide-angle reflection, and multichannel seismic data was used to derive a detailed tomographic image of the Nazca-South America subduction zone system offshore southern Arauco peninsula, Chile at ~38°S. Here, the trench basin is filled with up to 2.2 km of sediments, and the Mocha Fracture Zone (FZ) is obliquely subducting underneath the South American plate. The velocity model derived from the tomographic inversion consists of a ~7-km-thick oceanic crust and shows P wave velocities typical for mature fast spreading crust in the seaward section of the profile, with uppermost mantle velocities >8.4 km s-1. In the trench-outer rise area, the top of incoming oceanic plate is pervasively fractured and likely hydrated as shown by extensional faults, horst-and-graben structures, and a reduction

of both crustal and mantle velocities. These slow velocities are interpreted in terms of extensional bending-related faulting leading to fracturing and hydration in the upper part of the oceanic lithosphere. The incoming Mocha FZ coincides with an area of even slower velocities and thinning of the oceanic crust (10-15% thinning), suggesting that the incoming fracture zone may enhance the flux of chemically bound water into the subduction zone. Slow mantle velocities occur down to a maximum depth of 6-8 km into the upper mantle, where mantle temperatures are estimated to be 400-430°C. In the overriding plate, the tomographic model reveals two prominent velocity transition zones characterized by steep lateral velocity gradients, resulting in a seismic segmentation of the marine fore arc. The margin is composed of three main domains: (1) a ~20 km wide frontal prism below the continental slope with Vp = 3.5 km s-1, (2) a ~50 km area with Vp = 4.5-5.5 km s-1, interpreted as a paleoaccretionary complex, and (3) the seaward edge of the Paleozoic continental framework with Vp = 6.0 km s-1. Frontal prism velocities are noticeably lower than those found in the northern erosional Chile margin, confirming recent accretionary processes in south central Chile.

Julio de 2008
Probabilistic tephra hazard maps for the Neapolitan area: Quantitative volcanological study of Campi Flegrei eruptions
Authors: G. Mastrolorenzo, L. Pappalardo et al
Link: Click Here

Abstract
Tephra fall is a relevant hazard of Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), due to the high vulnerability of Naples metropolitan area to such an event. Here, tephra derive from magmatic as well as phreatomagmatic activity. On the basis of both new and literature data on known, past eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), grain size parameters, velocity at the vent, column heights and erupted mass), and factors controlling tephra dispersion (wind velocity and direction), 2D numerical simulations of fallout dispersion and deposition have been performed for a large number of case events. A bayesian inversion has been applied to retrieve the best values of critical parameters (e.g., vertical mass distribution, diffusion coefficients, velocity at the

vent), not directly inferable by volcanological study. Simulations are run in parallel on multiple processors to allow a fully probabilistic analysis, on a very large catalogue preserving the statistical proprieties of past eruptive history. Using simulation results, hazard maps have been computed for different scenarios: upper limit scenario (worst-expected scenario), eruption-range scenario, and whole-eruption scenario. Results indicate that although high hazard characterizes the Campi Flegrei caldera, the territory to the east of the caldera center, including the whole district of Naples, is exposed to high hazard values due to the dominant westerly winds. Consistently with the stratigraphic evidence of nature of past eruptions, our numerical simulations reveal that even in the case of a subplinian eruption (VEI = 3), Naples is exposed to tephra fall thicknesses of some decimeters, thereby exceeding the critical limit for roof collapse. Because of the total number of people living in Campi Flegrei and the city of Naples (ca. two million of inhabitants), the tephra fallout risk related to a plinian eruption of Campi Flegrei largely matches or exceeds the risk related to a similar eruption at Vesuvius.

Julio de 2008
Structural uplift beneath the Chicxulub impact structure
Authors: Peggy M. Vermeesch and Joanna V. Morgan
Link: Click Here

Abstract
Models of the central structure of large impact craters are poorly constrained, partly because of the lack of well-preserved terrestrial examples, and partly because of the extreme nature of impact events. Even large impact craters take only a few minutes to form, during which time rocks from the deep crust move upward many kilometers, interacting with impact melts and breccias before settling to their final position. We construct a new model of central uplift beneath the Chicxulub crater, based upon a well-constrained 3-D velocity model, obtained by jointly inverting seismic traveltime and gravity data. The input tomographic

data set has good resolution, and many rays cross the central uplift in many directions. We use laboratory measurements to convert between velocity and density. Our velocity model possesses a high-velocity zone near the crater center, and velocity gradually decreases outside this zone. We use regional refraction data to interpret these velocities in terms of a broad 80-km-wide zone of structural uplift, in which the central rocks originate from the lower crust, and the surrounding rocks from the midcrust and upper crust. This is in contrast with previous models in which the zone of central uplift is either 40-50 km or 150 km wide. Our interpretation is consistent with scaling laws, Yucatán basement lithology, other velocity data, observations at similar-sized terrestrial craters, and dynamic modeling of peak ring formation. Our model of the uplift at Chicxulub can be used to help distinguish between competing models of effective target strength in numerical models of crater formation.

Julio de 2008
VLF wave generation by amplitude-modulated HF heater waves at Gakona, Alaska
Authors: Spencer P. Kuo, Yen-Liang Wu et al
Link: Click Here

Abstract
Experiments conducted at Gakona, Alaska, using the intensity-modulated HF heating waves to interact with electrojet currents for the generation of VLF waves, are reported. An unexpected large increasing rate from 4 to 8 kHz in the frequency dependency of the VLF radiation intensity was

observed. The peak value at 8 kHz was intense (about 7.5 dB above that of the 2 kHz signal used as a marker) and the wave intensity from 5 to 17 kHz appeared to be abnormally high (i.e., stronger than that at 2 kHz). In the experiments, we also observed the enhancement of spread-E irregularities at electrojet current altitudes due to the amplitude-modulated heater wave. These results and theoretical analyses suggest that temporally modulated electrojet currents mix with heater wave-excited density irregularities to form whistler mode currents, which generate VLF whistler waves directly with much larger intensities and better directivity than a Hertzian dipole can.

Julio de 2008
Integrated interpretation of physical properties of rocks of the borehole Yaxcopoil-1 (Chicxulub impact structure)
Authors: S. I. Mayr, A. Wittmann et al
Link: Click Here

Abstract
The borehole Yaxcopoil-1, drilled within the Chicxulub meteoritic impact structure (Mexico), was completely cored from 404 to 1511 m through postimpact Tertiary limestones underlain by impactites. The impactites comprise impact melt-rich, suevitic breccia followed by megablocks of Cretaceous limestones, calcarenites, dolomites, and anhydrites. Measurements of porosity, density, and thermal parameters on 450 samples (equidistant sampling, complete depth range) and of ultrasonic velocities and electric resistivity on 80 representative samples are used to investigate the physical properties of carbonate rocks and to study the influence of the impact. Experiments under elevated pressure, calculations using frequency-dependent Biot-Gassmann theory, and

cross-checking with borehole logs, where available, show that ultrasonic laboratory and sonic in situ data correspond. Sonic and electric quasi-continuous logs are obtained from empirical correlations with thermal conductivity, density, and porosity and consideration of mineralogical composition and microstructure. These data give constraints on interpretation and geophysical modeling of, e.g., seismic and gravity data. In the Tertiary postimpact limestone section, the rock fabric (porosity) influences the physical properties. The upper boundary of the impactites is distinctly determined by the high inhomogeneity factor and anisotropy coefficient of thermal conductivity and by the temperature gradient from high-resolution borehole temperature measurements. All physical properties indicate that the upper part of the suevitic breccia can be distinguished from the lower suevite unit. In the Cretaceous megablocks, a high variability of all properties (particularly, thermal conductivity, density of solid material, and temperature gradient) due to the high variability in the mineral composition (calcite, dolomite, anhydrite) is observed.

Julio de 2008
Assessing the applicability of the spatial autocorrelation method: A theoretical approach
Authors: Ikuo Cho, Taku Tada et al
Link: Click Here

Abstract
We present a rigorous theoretical framework that allows one to assess the range of applicability of the spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) method, a technique of microtremor exploration that is widely used to infer phase velocities of Rayleigh waves using vertical-motion records from a circular array of seismic sensors. The magnitude of systematic errors (biases) that depend on the number of seismic sensors deployed around the circle, and the magnitude of systematic errors that arise from

the presence of incoherent noise, are both evaluated analytically, and their general properties are discussed. The relationship between the magnitude of stochastic errors, inherent in the analysis results, and the duration of measurement (or to put it more accurately, the data's degree of freedom) is also elucidated. The validity of our theory is corroborated by checks against the results of both real data analysis and numerical experiments, and an example is given of how the theory can be adapted to account for practical situations encountered in the field. Discussions on the range of applicability of the SPAC method, which have heretofore often fallen back on empirical observations, have now obtained a theoretical ground on which to stand, providing a basis for strategies to make maximal use of the SPAC method's capabilities.

Julio de 2008
Posteruptive phenomena in coronal mass ejections and substorms: Indicators of a universal process?
Authors: K. K. Reeves, T. B. Guild et al
Link: Click Here

Abstract
We examine phenomena associated with eruptions in the two different regimes of the solar corona and the terrestrial magnetosphere. We find striking similarities between the speeds of shrinking magnetic field lines in the corona and dipolarization fronts traversing the

magnetosphere. We also examine the similarities between supra-arcade downflows observed during solar flares and bursty bulk flows seen in the magnetotail and find that these phenomena have remarkably similar speeds, velocity profiles, and size scales. Thus we show manifest similarities in the magnetic reconfiguration in response to the ejection of coronal mass ejections in the corona and the ejection of plasmoids in the magnetotail. The subsequent return of loops to a quasi-potential state in the corona and field dipolarization in the magnetotail are physical analogs and trigger similar phenomena such as downflows, which provides key insights into the underlying drivers of the plasma dynamics.

Julio de 2008
Double seismic zone of the Nazca plate in northern Chile: High-resolution velocity structure, petrological implications, and thermomechanical modeling
Authors: Catherine Dorbath, Muriel Gerbault et al
Link: Click Here

Abstract
This paper presents an interdisciplinary study of the northern Chile double seismic zone. First, a high-resolution velocity structure of the subducting Nazca plate has been obtained by the tomoDD double-difference tomography method. The double seismic zone (DSZ) is observed between 80 and 140 km depth, and the two seismic planes is 20 km apart. Then, the chemical and petrologic characteristics of the oceanic lithosphere associated with this DSZ are deduced by using current thermal-petrological-seismological models and are compared to pressure-temperature conditions provided by a numerical thermomechanical model. Our results agree with the common hypothesis that seismicity in both upper and lower planes is related to fluid releases associated with metamorphic dehydration reactions. In the seismic upper plane located within the upper crust, these reactions would affect material of basaltic (MORB) composition and document different metamorphic reactions occurring within high-P (>2.4 GPa) and low-T (<570°C) jadeite-lawsonite blueschists and, at greater depth (>130 km), lawsonite-amphibole eclogite conditions. The lower plane lying in the oceanic mantle can be associated with serpentinite dehydration reactions. The Vp and Vs characteristics of the region in between both

planes are consistent with a partially (~25-30 vol % antigorite, ~0-10% vol % brucite, and ~4-10 vol % chlorite) hydrated harzburgitic material. Discrepancies persist that we attribute to complexities inherent to heterogeneous structural compositions. While various geophysical indicators evidence particularly cold conditions in both the descending Nazca plate and the continental fore arc, thermomechanical models indicate that both seismic planes delimit the inner slab compressional zone around the 400°C (±50°C) isotherm. Lower plane earthquakes are predicted to occur in the slab's flexural neutral plane, where fluids released from surrounding metamorphic reactions could accumulate and trigger seismicity. Fluids migrating upward from the tensile zone below could be blocked in their ascension by the compressive zone above this plane, thus producing a sheeted layer of free fluids, or a serpentinized layer. Therefore earthquakes may present either downdip compression and downdip tensile characteristics. Numerical tests indicate that the slab's thermal structure is not the only factor that controls the occurrence of inner slab compression. (1) A weak ductile subduction channel and (2) a cold mantle fore arc both favor inner slab compression by facilitating transmission of compressional stresses from the continental lithosphere into the slab. (3) Decreasing the radius of curvature of the slab broadens the depth of inner slab compression, whereas (4) decreasing upper plate convergence diminishes its intensity. All these factors indicate that if DSZs indeed contour inner slab compression, they cannot be linked only to slab unbending, but also to the transmission of high compressional stresses from the upper plate into the slab.

Julio de 2008
First identification of mirror mode waves in Venus' magnetosheath?
Authors: M. Volwerk, T. L. Zhang et al
Link: Click Here

Abstract
In this paper first time observations of mirror mode like structures in Venus' magnetosheath are presented. Using magnetometer data from the Venus Express spacecraft it is shown that in two regions in the Venusian magnetosheath strong compressional waves exist, which propagate

nearly perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field. They are most likely mirror-mode waves. The waves have periods between 5 and 15 sec, depending on the location in the magnetosheath. These waves show up just behind the quasi-perpendicular bow shock, and near the magnetopause during compression of the magnetosheath due to increased solar wind pressure. The characteristics of the waves are similar to mirror mode waves found in the Earth's magnetosheath, however, they are down-scaled in duration and frequency by a factor of 10, comparable with the difference in size of Venus' and Earth's magnetosheath.

Julio de 2008
Spring frost risk in a changing climate
Authors: J. R. Rigby and Amilcare Porporato
Link: Click Here

Abstract
While both the mean and variance of daily temperature are forecasted to increase in future climate scenarios, studies of spring frost risk to vegetation have relied on changes in mean temperature to understand frost risk in these

scenarios. We present a probabilistic model of spring frost risk based on the stochastic-crossing properties of a coupled temperature-phenology model in which the mean, variance, and autocorrelation structure of spring temperature may be controlled through independent parameters. The model results show that frost risk to vegetation is as sensitive to increases in daily temperature variance (which increases frost risk) as to increases in the mean temperature (which decreases frost risk).

Julio de 2008
Dynamics of Mount Etna before, during, and after the July-August 2001 eruption inferred from GPS and differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry data
Authors: Giuseppe Puglisi, Alessandro Bonforte et al
Link: Click Here

Abstract
Ground deformation data from GPS and differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR) techniques are analyzed to study the July-August 2001 Mount Etna eruption as well as the dynamics preceding and following this event. Five GPS surveys were carried out on the entire Mount Etna network or on its southeastern part, from July 2000 to October 2001. Five ERS-2 ascending passes and three descending ones are used to form five interferograms spanning periods from a month to 1 year, before and encompassing the eruption. Numerical and analytical inversions of the GPS and DInSAR data were performed to obtain analytical models for preeruptive, syneruptive and posteruptive periods.

The deformation sources obtained were from the Mogi model: (1) pressure sources located beneath the upper western flank of the volcano, inflating before the eruption onset and deflating afterward; (2) tensile dislocations to model the intrusion of a N-S dike in the central part of the volcano; and (3) two sliding and two normal dislocations to model the eastern and southern flank dynamics. This study confirms that the lower vents of the eruption were fed by a magma stored at depth ranging from 9 to 4 km below sea level, as proposed from petrochemical and geophysical researches. The rising of the magma through the shallow crust started months before the eruption onset but accelerated on the last day; this study suggests that in the volcanic pile the path of the rising magma was driven by the volcano topography. The eastern sliding plane and the interaction between dike intrusion and flank instability have been better defined with respect to previous studies. The sliding motion abruptly accelerated with the dike intrusion, and this continued after the end of the eruption. The acceleration was accompanied by the propagation of the strain field toward the eastern periphery of the volcano.

Descubren en Brasil nuevos pozos petroleros
Fuente: www.latercera.cl/contenido/26_21088_9.shtml

La empresa petrolera brasileña Petrobras anunció hoy [13 de junio de 2008] el descubrimiento de un nuevo pozo de petróleo, denominado Guará, en la Cuenca de Santos, zona de una serie de hallazgos que dan al país la posibilidad de convertirse en gran potencia energética.
La "acumulación" de hidrocarburos se encuentra a más de 5.000 metros de profundidad, debajo de capas de piedra y sal, reportó la agencia Estado.
Las perforaciones continúan y las estimaciones de reservas aún no se conocen, pero Guará está situada cerca del campo Carioca, donde meses atrás se hallaron grandes reservas.
El director de la Agencia Nacional de Petróleo,

Haroldo Lima, informó después del descubrimiento del área Carioca, que esa región puede albergar más de 30 mil millones de barriles de gas y petróleo.
Carioca es uno de los campos gigantes descubiertos desde noviembre de 2007.
En la misma zona donde se encuentra el bloque BM-S-9 o Guará, están los bloques BM-S-8, BM-S-21 y BM-S-22, que aún no fueron explorados.
Petrobrás tiene el 45% de los derechos de explotación de Guará, mientras el 30% corresponde al BG Group, de Gran Bretaña, y el 25 % restante a la empresa petrolera española Repsol.
Analistas sostienen que en esa región del litoral brasileño hay más de 50.000 millones de barriles de reservas, informó hoy la agencia Estado.

Junio de 2008
Multiphase flow predictions from carbonate pore space images using extracted network models
Authors: Anwar S. Al-Kharusi and Martin J. Blunt
Link: Click Here

Abstract
A methodology to extract networks from pore space images is used to make predictions of multiphase transport properties for subsurface carbonate samples. The extraction of the network model is based on the computation of the location and sizes of pores and throats to create a topological representation of the void space of three-dimensional (3-D) rock images, using the concept of maximal balls. In this work, we follow a multistaged workflow. We start with a 2-D thin-section image; convert it statistically into a 3-D representation of the pore space; extract a network model from this image; and finally, simulate primary drainage, waterflooding, and secondary drainage flow processes using a pore-scale simulator. We test this workflow for a reservoir carbonate rock. The network-predicted absolute

permeability is similar to the core plug measured value and the value computed on the 3-D void space image using the lattice Boltzmann method. The predicted capillary pressure during primary drainage agrees well with a mercury-air experiment on a core sample, indicating that we have an adequate representation of the rock's pore structure. We adjust the contact angles in the network to match the measured waterflood and secondary drainage capillary pressures. We infer a significant degree of contact angle hysteresis. We then predict relative permeabilities for primary drainage, waterflooding, and secondary drainage that agree well with laboratory measured values. This approach can be used to predict multiphase transport properties when wettability and pore structure vary in a reservoir, where experimental data is scant or missing. There are shortfalls to this approach, however. We compare results from three networks, one of which was derived from a section of the rock containing vugs. Our method fails to predict properties reliably when an unrepresentative image is processed to construct the 3-D network model. This occurs when the image volume is not sufficient to represent the geological variations observed in a core plug sample.

Junio de 2008
Simulation study of the two-dimensional Burridge-Knopoff model of earthquakes
Authors: Takahiro Mori and Hikaru Kawamura
Link: Click Here

Abstract
Spatiotemporal correlations of the two-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model of earthquakes are extensively studied by means of numerical computer simulations. The model is found to exhibit either a "subcritical", "supercritical" or "near-critical" behavior, depending on the values of the model parameters. Transition between the "subcritical" and "supercritical" regimes is either continuous or discontinuous. Seismic events in the "subcritical"

regime and those in the "supercritical" regime at larger magnitudes exhibit universal scaling properties. In the "supercritical" regime, eminent spatiotemporal correlations, e.g., a remarkable growth of seismic activity preceding the main shock, arise in earthquake occurrence, whereas such spatiotemporal correlations are significantly suppressed in the "subcritical" regime. Seismic activity is generically suppressed just before the main shock in a close vicinity of the epicenter of the upcoming event while it remains to be active in the surroundings (the Mogi doughnut). It is also observed that, before and after the main shock, an apparent B-value of the magnitude distribution decreases or increases in the "supercritical" or "subcritical" regimes, respectively. Such distinct precursory phenomena may open a way to the prediction of the upcoming large event.

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