GWP - COPPER

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April 2004

About copper, royalty and Bolivian gas

The immediate future
- Bolivia needs to sell its gas (if it doesn't it would be "a beggar sat in a golden throne"). Then, a rational behaviour is that this gas goes to the Pacific through Ilo (Perú)
- That's why Bolivia is going to provide gas to Argentina but demanding imperatively this gas couldn't be addressed to Chile. If Chile wants bolivian gas, it must address to Bolivia (a triangle is not possible)
- If the Chilean energetic matrix (fossil and hydroelectric) doesn't change, by 2006 (when Argentina couldn't even cover its own demand of gas) the KWh price is going to increase 10 times (marginal present cost: 2.2 cents)
- ACERA, Chilean entreprenuer association that develops projects about renewable energies, stated to be ready to install 200 MW of clean energy in the next 18 months as thet are allowed to enter to SIC and at the same time they are given a payment in the same conditions to the actual CEDEC's partners. ¿Who are the ones that avoid this to be concrete?

Iraq's occupation shows us how the wealth of a undeveloped country acts as a fish hook to make the transnationals use their political nets to take possession of it. In the case of Chile, we have a that the territory claimed by Bolivia (to the North of the parallel 24) has very attractive resources: The Pacific Ocean including the 200 miles of Exclusive Economic Zone, the Chuqicamata mine, the Chungará lake, several salt deposits, the Loa river, etc. When the discussion about the Royalty started, the transnationals of minning began to search alternatives to the exit of its products through the Pacific Ocean and at the same time it started a Bolivian demand of a "sovereign sea exit". It's told that this demand was shot by the popular discontent of the possibility to export Bolivian gas from Tarija through a chilean port. The powerfull demand had to be listened by the anglo Presidents of Bolivia (Jorge Quiroga and Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada) and by the actual Carlos Mesa. The Chilean proposition was assimetrically better to Bolivia:
- The gas pipe would by managed by a bolivian staff
- The chilean territory would have a cost of cero to the Bolivians
In spite of this and of the possibility to increase the Bolivian PIB in a 15% (from MUS$ 8900 to MUS$ 10200) the bussines was broken due to the requirement that the gas had to go to the Pacific through a Bolivian port.
We must notice that the main beneffitted with that port will be those transnationals that have the resources to exploit the Bolivian and Chilean wealth and those that aspire to make it in a low cost (for instance without a royalty). Isn't strange that the Bolivian PIB is the lowest in southamerica while in Bolivia there are zinc, gold, silver mines and aboundant natural gas? What has happened with the millionaire contributions made by England to Bolivia? WHERE IS ALL THAT MONEY? Is it possible that almost 40 minning "Chilean" societies became "charity societies" with more than 20 years of loss (as they want us to believe)? On the other side, the Bolivian ports would allow the exit to of Brazil to the Pacific Ocean. It wouldn't be a sovreign exit, but that (almost) nobody matters. The old wars started to take the wealth of the losing country, but now the same effect can be made "legally" without prohibition to the sovereignty nor to the pride of the vassal country.
Finally and as we said in February the Chilean dependence of Argentinian gas was very dangerous. Argentina didn't modernize its exploitation and distribution system of gas and now we are in the threshold of the cutting of supplies from. But Bolivia is still the country that has gas in excess... while Chile wants to sell it and not change it for territory.

If you don't still notice, we look like pawns in gigantic chess game.


June, 2003
With Respect to the E-mails Against the Royalty

The anti Royalty point of view is the following one:
i) The imposition of Royalty increases the "Country Risk" in Minning, what takes away foreign investors.
ii) No tributes mus be imposed to minning, because it provides work to many chilean people
Our point of view is the following one:
i) As the case is that (almost) none mine pay taxes, the mainbenefit to the country corresponds to employments that are created (engineers, mine operators, employees, secretaries, consultors, managers, etc.). Then, minning gives work to 1.7% of the active population. The salary of the activity is about Ch$ 450.000. So, monthly the benefit to Chile is 450000*(0.017*6000000) = 45900 M$ = 61.2 MUS$. This number is truly laughable compared to the monthly sales. They are really "consuming out our main resource in exchange for absolutely nothing"
ii) Minning is a unsustainable activity. In effect: every minning is projected in terms of its useful life. The resource is non renewable it runs out. Are we gonna allow that our patrimony be destroyed for free?
iii) Just a 1% Royalty on the sales could be seen in schools, more resources to fight against delinquency, hospitals, highways, research centres, etc. A 1% Royalty does not turns a positive profit in negative. We know that some investors will look with displeasure the Royalty because they don't like that Chile changes from a servile attitude to other where what is fair is demanded. But the rule of any businessman is "If the bussiness still generates profits..."


September, 2002

President Lagos, Esso-Exxon-Mobil and... "LA DISPUTADA", DISPUTED

It is well known that from the 47 companies which belong to great mining in Chile, 44 out of them annualy declare economical losses. About the case of "La Disputada de las Condes", Senator Jorge Lavandero argued that: "Nobody is going to believe that the American Exxon-Mobil, the biggest company in the world, which has a subsidary in Chile, as the "Carmelitas" Nuns, has worked 25 YEARS LOSING".

* HOW DO THEY GET BEING DECADES WITHOUT TAXATION?
i) "Self-sale" cheap copper. The idea is to pretend losing do not to pay taxes. The mining company sells copper to one of its subsidaries settled abroad (in a tax paradise) in a 70% - 80% of the market price.
ii) The payment of predatory loans. The mining company ask for a loan (for the starting ) with a high interest rate to a subsidiary settled in a tax paradise. In the case of La Disputada, they pay to financial subsidiaries of Exxon in Bahamas and Bermuda the 30% of the running costs (US$ 70 million)
iii) Losses of future sales. Options of copper are sold to a subsidary settled in a fiscal paradise and then the Chilean subsidiary buys these same options with a 20% - 30% of overprice, what generates a countable loss (but not real).

It seems that the only way to avoid taxation evation is through a tax in the sales ("Royalty"), a tribute that exist IN EVERY COUNTRY WHERE THE HEADQUARTERS OF THE MINING COMPANIES ARE SETTLED. How did they get Chile to be the exception?

* LAGOS AND EXXON
About the topic of "La Disputada", on August 30th the Mining Minister with Exxon Executives got together in order to find a "negotiated" solution to the sale of La Disputada in the Cayman Isles (which would mean a income zero for the Chilean IRS). The final decision remains in the hands of President Lagos:
"I want to be clear. We don't need to look for solutions to pay more or less taxes. It is not something voluntary what you pay. In Chile the laws are obbeyed and this transaction is going to be carried out according to the Chilean law and the corresponding taxes are going to be paid. I CAN'T ACCEPT PEOPLE TO TELL ME THAT A MINE IN CHILE WILL BE SOLD WITH A TRANSACTION IN A LITTLE ISLAND WHERE TAXES ARE NOT PAID. THAT FACT IS NOT ACCEPTED IN THE US EITHER, WHERE IS THE PLACE IN WHICH I UNDERSTAND THE HEADQUARTERS OF THAT COMPANY IS (...) Taxes are determined by laws. They can´t be negotiated (...) Why are they called taxes? (...) because they are not volunteered".

* THE FUTURE "BIG HOLE"
Senator Lavandero said that in a few years there will be in Chile a "Big Hole", similar to the one produced in Africa when the British exploited the diamond mines without paying taxes. "The mechanism in that case was the same: They moved the utilities of their subsidary companies, most of them situated in tax paradises so in that way no money was left, just poverty in the country of origin of the mineral resources. This is absolutely unacceptable because it is about companies which are running out our main wealth FOR ABSOLUTELY NOTHING".


January, 2002

THE COPPER PRODUCTION IS LOWERING IN THE WORLD

In their efforts to avoid the drastical fall in the price of the copper, the three major companies (Phelps Dodge, BHP Billiton and Codelco) announced a fall in the production for the current year.

Just the announcement made that in only two weeks the price increased in a 15%, what was slightly counteracted by the bankrupt of the US electric company Enron (which certainly has many copper wires in its store) This company in just one week sold 25 000 tons in the London Metal Stock Exchange and there are still another 100 000 tons to sell.

Enron's Bankrupt

During the year 2000 and part of 2001, the shares of Enron kept a good price. However, in less than a year the share-holders witnessed how the price went down up to see the bankrupt of the (ex) energy giant. Nobody knew that the Auditing Company, Arthur Andersen, had adulterated for years the real situation of Enron. It must be also considered the continuous contribution of Enron to several political campaigns (among them the one of George W. Bush), the starting of irregular companies founded by means of privileged information (federal crime) and the destroyment of important evidence by Arthur Andersen (obstruction to justice). Finally, it's important to mention that John Baxter, ex-vicepresident of Enron and one of the main witnesses of the case, commited suicide fed up of bearing the corruption and bad management accusations.

REDUCTIONS

The most important reduction are concentrated in three conglomerations:

* Phelps Dodge: It will lower its production in 220 000 tons, which is going to affect the mines Chino, Miami, Sierrita and Bagdad. These mines have costs between 72 and 80 cents of dolar per pound.
* BHP Billiton: It will lower its production in 170 000 tons, which is going to affect the mines Tintaya (88.5 cents of dolar) and Escondida (57 cents of dolar).
* Codelco: It hasn't specified in detail its plan of reduction, yet. The open cut mines are expected to be very affected (because they have a minor fineness) and the reduction will be proportional to the production of the division. It means that the higher lowering will be in Chuquicamata. It seems to be that the lowering will be 100000 tons (6% of the current year production)

Adding all the announcement, in 2002 will exist in the market 650 000 tons of copper less.


Nov, 2001

CODELCO STATES THAT ITS PRODUCTION WILL DIMINISH WHEN A NEW MINE IS BEING OPENED

Codelco, the main copper producer in the world, chose to merge the rest of the industries and make cuts in its production for next year. So, in this way the over supply could be diminished in order to avoid the sustained lowering in the price of this metal.

The historical announcement, because during the last decade we attended to lectures where this corporation claimed that the increasing of the production was an estrategy to keep the place of the number one producer in the world. It is important to mention that the falling in the price of the copper has not been evident thanks to the Copper Stabilization Fund ("FEC"): During the current year, the FEC has given US$ 360 million to the Fisco.

On the other hand, the period january - march 2002, the FEC will have to pay to Fisco US$ 140 miilions because of the low income of Codelco in the period april - june.

The 60 cents of dollar barrier is really dangerous for Codelco because there is the risk that the most expensive mines should probably close. A historical date was November, 7th because the barrier was trespassed: 59.8 cents of dollar.

Despite of the announcement of diminishing the production, President Lagos opened in the Second Region the new mine of copper "El Tesoro" wich belongs to the Luksic Group. This mine will produce 75 thousand millions tons of copper cathods yearly, what is going to make harder the reduction of the overproduction.

NOTES:

* How the facts developed:
- The US producer Phelps Dodge slaughter 220 thousands tons to diminish the over production
- The Angloaustralian BHP Billiton slaughter 170 thousands tons
- Next day Villarzú says that Codelco is going to reduce the copper production (In how many tons?)
- A similar announcement of Grupo Mexico is expected
* Industry is similar to an oligopoly ("Cartel") resembling OPEP (this is a comparison that Codelco dislikes) Many negatives reactions may rise on the side of the buyers...
* The production diminished, but the price increases what is going to be the real effect? The profit will be higher or lower? It depends of the Price Elasticity of the copper demand. Who know its value?
* The public budget for 2002 assumes a base price of 75 cents of dollar. Maybe it is more realistic to assume a price of 70 cents of dollar (except wheter there is change in the supply)
* In less than a year the copper price range has fallen in a 25%
* Each cent of dollar the copper diminishes, means that the chilean people loses US$ 50 million (or that the public budget doesn't receive about US$ 25 million)

* Codelco announced 500 dismissals for 2002 in its plan of efficiency perfecting (machinery v/s skill labor) In the target of this, are the mines El Salvador and El teniente. It is important to mention that El Salvador shows "negative profit" for US$ 3 million yearly


Sept, 2001

CHILEAN PRODUCTION OF COPPER: AN EMPOVERISHING GROWTH?

While Chile increases its production of copper, the price radically falls.

Basic rule of the economy: the overproduction causes a falling in the prices...

The chart shows, simultaneously, the chilean production of copper (in black) and the price of copper in the London Metal Stock Exchange (red), taking into account the USA inflation ('real' dollars)

It can be observed that in 4 years Chile increased its production in a 41% while the price of the copper lowered in a 31%

TO HAVE IN MIND...

* The utilities in Codelco lowered in 30% during the first term (US$ 105 millions)
PROJECTION: At the end of the year Chile will be US$ 2 thousand millions poorer because of the cupriferous sales
* Does it have any sense to try to be n° 1 if this causes losses?
* In the period from 95 to 99 the copper consumption rised a 13% while the production in Chile increased in a 76%
* Last month, the price of a copper pound LMS was 65-69 cents...the lowest level since the Great Depression in 1929
* The public bridget was calculated considering a "reference price" to the copper of 92 cents, in front of the present average of 75 cents
* If the price of the copper falls below 60 cents, Codelco will need to close some mines (cost>sales)


MYSTERY
How much can the monetary utilities increase if the worlwide production of copper lower 100 thousand tons?

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